Warmer weather in forecast, but ice slow to thaw
LITTLE ROCK – The deep freeze that gripped The Natural State is coming to an end, but thick ice still covers many of the state’s shallow wetlands.
Despite temperatures that climbed into the 50s earlier this week, nighttime lows in the 20s and the prolonged period of sub-freezing temperatures have kept fields, flooded timber and other wetlands locked up solid.
Reports from northeast Arkansas indicate ice as thick as several inches in many areas, and even wetlands in southern Arkansas were still covered by ice on Wednesday.
But warmer temperatures and a chance of rain should help speed the thawing process in the coming days, opening previously frozen wetlands and possibly expanding opportunities for the state’s duck hunters. High temperatures are expected to climb into the 50s over the next several days, with nighttime lows in the mid 30s. Chances of rain are also in the forecast, another factor that should hasten thawing rates.
Arkansas Game and Fish Commission biologists flew midwinter aerial waterfowl surveys Jan. 4-6, just as the coldest weather in more than two decades was hitting the state. Preliminary estimates for the Delta region showed a total population of roughly 2.8 million ducks, including 2.3 million mallards.
AGFC staff flew surveys for western Arkansas later in the week, and observers also noted large increases in ducks in the Arkansas River Valley and southwest Arkansas, including an estimate of 93,000 mallards among 126,000 total ducks in the survey area.
Although the population estimates for total ducks and mallards are both high, several factors are likely influencing the most recent population numbers.
For starters, AGFC is employing a new survey method for the state’s Delta, using randomly chosen east-west transect lines to observe waterfowl. In years past the AGFC, like many state wildlife agencies, used a “cruise” survey method, flying over known waterfowl habitat and traditional hot spots to observe ducks. The transect method is far more scientific and allows waterfowl managers to make better estimates of total populations and observe more and varied waterfowl habitat.
Thus, numbers from this year’s midwinter survey cannot be compared to previous year’s midwinter survey numbers.
“An inherent problem with cruise surveys is that you know you’re not covering all the habitat that’s out there,” said Luke Naylor, AGFC waterfowl program coordinator. “In years like this one, when we’ve had abundant habitat because of so much rainfall, cruise surveys really fall apart. With so much habitat like we have this year, it would be extremely difficult to cover with a cruise survey. I feel certain we observed ducks this year that we would’ve missed with the cruise survey. The transect method systematically forced us to survey some habitats that have been typically under-sampled in previous years.”
This year’s midwinter survey also took place in a sort of “perfect storm” for duck abundance in Arkansas. The state was inundated with heavy rainfall in late December, flooding river bottoms, agricultural fields and other important waterfowl wintering areas. Within days of that extreme weather event, a massive area of Arctic air descended on the state, bringing the coldest temperatures in more than two decades.
“I think this survey captured a unique event,” Naylor said. “There was water everywhere in the most important mallard wintering area in the Mississippi Flyway, just as this huge mass of cold air hit the state. The two factors we most often talk about when it comes to duck abundance are habitat, in the form of water, and cold weather. And we experienced them both in a matter of days.”
Of course, high population estimates don’t always translate to hunting success, and AGFC staff observations may help explain a perceived discrepancy in high duck numbers and some hunters’ lack of success.
AGFC biologists reported many ducks were using nontraditional habitat such as scrub-shrub habitat in areas along major river bottomlands such as the White and Arkansas rivers. Waterfowl concentrations also were seen in reforested wetlands such as Wetlands Reserve Program lands, which frequently don’t flood until later in the season. Observers reported a notable absence of birds from traditional habitat such as flooded agricultural fields.
“It’s also interesting that surveys from the Mississippi Department of Wildlife, Fisheries and Parks made the same observations of ducks using nontraditional habitats,” Naylor said.
Naylor also pointed out that, while 2.3 million mallards represents a large number, it may not seem quite as big when hunters consider the vast Delta acreage in the state. Although it doesn’t account for acreage in cotton fields and other non-wetland habitats, 2.3 million mallards distributed evenly across the Delta represent about 10 mallards per 40-acre field.
“When you look at it in those terms, it’s a little different,” Naylor said.
Based on last week’s midwinter surveys, AGFC has created maps showing relative duck densities around the state. The maps are included in several Web links AGFC has created to assist hunters in tracking waterfowl movements throughout the flyway and within the state.
For a list of links, visit http://www.agfc.com/hunting/huntingseasons/waterfowl-migratory-birds/waterfowl-locations.aspx.
This waterfowl report provides capsule information from agency staff in all corners of Arkansas and is updated each Wednesday throughout waterfowl season.
